Tuesday 29 September 2009

Neuralbet Review



I have quit using the software until my bankroll recovers for another go.

I'm running well at poker and okay at tennis so no problem but neuralbet would have wiped me out.

300 bets should be enough to be a guide as to profitability, I would have liked to have 1000 bets but my roll won't stand it.

I reckon neuralbet has cost me but only say $250 + plus the $399 the effing software cost. I will have another go when my roll has recovered.

I have now seen that my blog has made it into the search area of neuralbet. I will give more info.

I bought Neuralbet for Scooer, US Football and Baseball.

For your info I am a small stakes gambler. My theory is to bet many times on selected events where I have a small edge. I love the idea of using computers to beat Sports betting. Hey that's how the bigtime pros do it right?

The software is just a click of a button job, you fire it up and it will churn out the picks for the day.

The problem that I have with it is that it only gives you the figure, not the data behind it.

I use the On court software to cap tennis matches with great success and Neuralbet seemed like an extension of that. I have also made a killing playing internet poker so I know my way around internet gambling. I am a steady winner, my hope in a few years is to grow my bankroll and make some serious money.

The image from above has 82 baseball bets($190 loss) and 56 soccer bets(150 loss) with just 8 Us football bets for a miniscule profit.

I lost over $300 due to Neuralbet on Betfair alone, it's predictions were just so bad that if I had flipped a coin choosing heads for one side and tails for the other I would have fared better.

I have put on 250 or so bets with a $400 loss, my roll is only just starting to recover since I stopped using it about 4 weeks ago.

My belief is that it has been invented by the bookies to get some revenge over the computer whizzes that have been having their pants down for years!

The above figure represents a fairly flat staking system with only small ajustment made if I had a reasonable edge on the bet.

I do realise that my sample of bets is small and that variance could have affected me however a trial of 250-300 bets should show if a system is profitable, Neuralbet unfortunately is not.

Thursday 24 September 2009

Neuralbet

Hmmh what can I say.

Neuralbet is basically a neuralnetwork which predicts the outcomes of sporting events.

The main problem I'm having here is that if I assigned one of my teams as heads and the other tails and tossed a coin, betting the heads team each time the coin would undoubtedtly run better that the software that Neuralbet have provided me with.

Now we have to give it a fair run. I started betting $25 per game hoping for a $1 per game return, not greedy and not unreasonable. The results published by the website have neuralbet winning every way possible.

Not so. So far I have had my arse kicked to the tune of nearly $500.

Small sample, could be variance, end of baseball season, beginning of football season, beginning of US football season could be.

I will ride it out but I can see it busting me on both betfair and bet daq before the trial is over.

I will keep you posted. Neuralbet support haven't been much help. They won't send me their full results even though I have psaid $400 for their software.

Don't get me wrong, this was an experiment and as with any business venture you can get caught out I win at poker win at tennis betting hey why not try to expand?

I may have to scale back but it doesn't look good for Neuralbet.

I'll keep you posted.

Wednesday 16 September 2009

Well my Bodog bankroll has hit $1k. My sports betting roll is about the same.
I'm running excellent at poker making $500 in the last 10 days or so.
I just want to make my computer betting to work then I will have it sussed. Pro gambling for me then.

Saturday 12 September 2009

Hmmh.

The computer prediction betting is not going too well. It gives me a ton of picks.
Like I'd estimate 40 picks for today encompassing baseball, US football and Soccer.

I keep lumping it on but I may have to use Human intervention to make it work.

It won the other day and got me back to even over about 115 bets and I've has my arse kicked today.

I won a shitload playing poker so all is good but I'm concerned about the computer betting.

My aim is to get to 1000 bets without going broke. If I can do that i will have enough data to at least work on.
Well back to gambling.

Poker is going well I'm on a 120 BB winning streak I'm starting to eye the $4/8 game. Not bad considering the 11 months ago I was playing 25/50c. I'd just love to get back to 5 figures.

Sports betting is a high variance business.

I am killing tennis, I was running about even on Baseball and Soccer until i had a 4 game loss streak on the soccer betting last night.

I will have to see how we go from there. I have about $400 in play again just for the soccer this weekend and will then reinvest it all in Baseball and US Football once the soccer results are in and I have some of my bankroll back.

The jury is still out as to whether or not my system for Soccer, US football and Baseball works.

I believe that my theory is sound however a bad down turn and I'll go broke.

Wednesday 2 September 2009

Promoted - Sucks!


Okay so my promotion has finally come through at work and I start next week. So the boss calls me into his office for a chat. I think here we go, bit of a congratulatory talk, few words of encouragement and a few pointers and here we go!
Not a fucking bit of it mate.
An hour and a half of the boss basically telling me how shit I am, how he dosen't want me on his team and how if I mess up just one tiny bit he'll stick me on the way to a sacking faster that I can blink.
Well fucking great I'm really looking forward to this. I mean being a statistician it strikes me that the odds of me surviving my first 3 months without a severe bollocking are virtually nil. In my business my team will deal with about 2000 jobs in that time and only one of those has got to go wrong to screw me.
I'm confident I know what I'm doing however once they look to shaft you you're in trouble.
I mean could they have done more to knock my confidence or make me feel like shit.
I don't know if this is some sort of reverse psychology shit to try to get me to work harder but I just feel like they are trying to fuck me and i don't really want to work for them. That doesn't motivate me it just pisses me off.
I now approach my new position with trepidation knowing that the boss is the enemy.
I will prevail.